The first national budget of Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s BNP-led coalition government is nearly finalized. Barring any major changes, the proposed Tk 9.38 lakh crore budget for the 2026–27 fiscal year is set to be presented in Parliament on 11 June.

The government is preparing the budget at a time when it is grappling with severe funding constraints and increasing reliance on borrowing. It has already taken substantial bank loans, while the revenue shortfall has surpassed Tk1 lakh crore. Sluggish economic activity and weak business performance have further increased dependence on debt financing.

Despite these challenges, the government is moving forward with an ambitious budget, raising concerns among economists and analysts about its feasibility. They argue that the government’s fiscal capacity remains limited and that implementing such an expansive budget will be difficult. In addition to increased borrowing, taxpayers may face a heavier burden as the government seeks additional revenue.

The proposed budget represents a nearly 19 percent increase over the current fiscal year’s Tk7.90  lakh crore budget, which itself has fallen significantly behind implementation targets. Alongside higher expenditure plans, the government is targeting a massive Tk6.95 lakh crore in revenue collection. Even then, the budget is expected to carry a record deficit of Tk2.43 lakh crore, requiring heavy reliance on both foreign and domestic borrowing.

In line with the BNP government’s election manifesto and its “Bangladesh First” vision, the budget places the highest priority on social protection, education and food security.

The information emerged from an analysis of the final budget summary prepared by the Finance Division. Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury has already held a series of meetings with Prime Minister Tarique Rahman regarding the proposal, and the summary has been finalized based on his directives.

The draft budget identifies 13 priority areas, including inflation control, food security, economic recovery, higher growth, implementation of election pledges, expansion of social safety nets, introduction of Family Card and Farmer Card programmes, and broad-based employment generation.

Officials from the Finance Division and the National Board of Revenue say Tarique Rahman views his first budget as prime minister as a milestone for the country’s economy. He reportedly worked on the proposal throughout the Eid holiday. It is also the first budget for Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury, whose budget speech is currently being finalized.

According to the draft, the government has set a GDP growth target of 6.5 percent for FY2026–27, up from the 5.5 percent target set by the previous interim government for the current fiscal year. However, the World Bank estimates Bangladesh’s growth this year could remain below 5 percent.

Revenue and Expenditure Plan

The government aims to collect Tk 6.95 lakh crore in revenue, including Tk 6.04 lakh crore from the National Board of Revenue, Tk 2,500 crore from non-NBR sources, and Tk 66000 crore from non-tax revenue. The remaining Tk 2.43 lakh crore will be financed through borrowing.

Annual Development Programme

The government has approved a Tk 3 trillion Annual Development Programme (ADP) for FY2026–27. Of this, Tk 1.90 trillion will come from domestic resources, while Tk 1.10 trillion will be financed through foreign aid and loans. Priority sectors include transport and communication, education, healthcare, power and energy, housing, agriculture and rural development, social protection, and climate resilience.

Financing the Deficit

With revenue shortfalls exceeding Tk 1 trillion during the first 10 months of the current fiscal year, financing the proposed Tk 2.43 trillion deficit will be a major challenge. The government plans to borrow Tk 1.12 trillion from the banking sector and Tk 150 billion from non-bank sources. The remaining Tk 1.16 trillion is expected to come from foreign financing. At the same time, foreign debt repayments are projected to reach Tk 460 billion during the next fiscal year.

Budget Priorities

The budget aims to support the government’s goal of transforming Bangladesh into a $1 trillion economy by 2034. Key objectives include sustaining economic growth, controlling inflation, maintaining macroeconomic stability, expanding social safety programmes through Family Card and Farmer Card initiatives, improving healthcare services, restoring discipline in the financial sector, strengthening food security through agricultural support, and promoting the creative economy, including film, music, sports and rural culture.

Social Protection Expansion

The allocation for social protection is proposed to increase to nearly Tk 1.38 trillion from approximately Tk 1.26 trillion in the current fiscal year. Major programmes include Family Card and Farmer Card initiatives, old-age allowances, widow allowances, disability benefits, stipends for freedom fighters, and maternal and child support schemes. Funding has also been earmarked for employment generation, skills development, women’s empowerment and poverty alleviation programmes.

Top Spending Ministries

Education and health are the largest beneficiaries in the proposed budget. The Secondary and Higher Education Division tops the list with an allocation of about Tk 573.02 billion. The Health Services Division follows closely, with its allocation nearly doubling to Tk 493.89 billion, reflecting the government’s emphasis on human development and social welfare.

Source : Kaler Kantho