Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to place his maiden national budget for the fiscal year FY27 in the Jatiya Sangsad on Thursday, aiming to advance Bangladesh’s transition towards a more investment-driven and “trillion-dollar economy” through higher growth targets, regulatory reforms and expanded fiscal measures.

The total outlay of the budget is likely to be set at Tk9.38 lakh crore, the largest national budget in the country’s history.

This will be the first budget of the BNP government this time following a landslide victory in parliamentary election held on 12 February this year. A BNP-led government had last presented its national budget for the fiscal year 2006-‘07 under then Finance Minister M Saifur Rahman.

According to Finance Division officials, the budget is being prepared under the broad theme of “Economic Democratization and Deregulation: Bangladesh’s Journey Towards a Trillion-Dollar Economy,”.

The budget is set to place strong emphasis on human resource development aligning with its “Bangladesh First” vision. The budget prioritizes education, health, employment, social protection, and entrepreneurship to build long-term economic capacity and foster a modern, knowledge-based, and inclusive economy.

The budgetary allocation shifts focus away from physical infrastructure towards human capital development, with the highest allocations in education and health sectors.

The probable key highlights of the budget are: high education and health sector allocation, entrepreneurship development fund: Tk225 crore, SME entrepreneurship fund: Tk2,000 crore, possible partial implementation of the new pay scale for the public servants, possible introduction of an “E-Health Card” programme for 2.5 million citizens aiming to strengthen universal health coverage through digitalization of health services, allocations in different social safety net programmes including in farmer cards, family cards, and a target of creation of overseas employment opportunities for 10 million people.

Besides, the government has put an emphasis on creative economic activities to keep the country’s youth away from drugs, terrorism, and extremism. As part of this, an allocation of Tk300 crore is likely to be set aside in the upcoming national budget.

Officials said the budget reflects the government’s electoral commitments and the future needs of the economy.

The next budget is being described as a shift toward human capital–driven growth, aiming to support a knowledge-based economy and expand employment opportunities both at home and abroad.

Record Budget Size and Key Fiscal Indicators:

The FY27 budget is likely to propose an expenditure of Tk9.38 lakh crore, reflecting continued expansionary fiscal planning amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Of the total outlay, Tk6.95 lakh crore is expected to be financed through domestic revenue sources, while the remainder will come from borrowing and external assistance.

The overall fiscal deficit is likely to be projected at Tk2.51 lakh crore, equivalent to 3.6% of GDP, which remains within internationally recommended thresholds for developing economies.

Finance ministry officials estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) size for FY27 at Tk68.30 lakh crore, with a growth target of 6.5% and an inflation target of 7.5%.

Economists note that while the growth projection reflects optimism, maintaining macroeconomic stability—particularly controlling inflation and improving revenue mobilisation—will remain a key challenge.

Policy Shift Towards Deregulation and Investment Facilitation:

A central feature of the upcoming budget is a significant push toward deregulation aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting both domestic and foreign investment.

The government is expected to introduce reforms to simplify licensing procedures, accelerate business approvals and modernise tax administration.

The budget speech will reportedly include a dedicated chapter on “Ease of Doing Business through Deregulation,” highlighting efforts to reduce bureaucratic delays, eliminate duplication of documentation, and streamline investment processes.

Officials said a “Digital Application Platform” and a unified “One-Stop Service” system branded as “Banglabiz” is likely to be introduced to centralise licensing, certification, and approval procedures. These reforms aim to reduce face-to-face interactions between businesses and regulatory authorities.

In an interview with BSS, Dr Monzur Hossain, Member (Secretary) of the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission, said the upcoming national budget for FY27 is firmly aligned with the government’s election manifesto, placing strong emphasis on inflation control, investment stimulation and employment generation through structural reforms and social protection expansion.

He said that Bangladesh’s upcoming national budget is being formulated prioritising inclusive development, revenue mobilisation, and revitalisation of the rural economy while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

“The priorities are aligned with the government’s manifesto. The issues emphasized there are being given top priority in this budget,” Dr Hossain said, adding that the government has translated its election commitments into actionable policy measures within a short time frame.

Tax Administration Modernisation:

The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is expected to undergo extensive automation under the new fiscal framework. Key initiatives include full online corporate tax return filing, year-round submission facilities, and direct electronic tax refunds into taxpayers’ bank accounts.

Late filers may face higher tax rates, while early filers could receive incentives. The reforms also include a mobile application to facilitate e-return submissions and reduce procedural delays.

In addition, tax dispute resolution mechanisms are expected to be streamlined through faster processes in tribunals, appellate bodies, and alternative dispute resolution (ADR) systems.

Financing the Budget Deficit:

The FY27 budget deficit is likely to be projected at Tk2.51 lakh crore, which will be financed through a combination of domestic and external borrowing.

According to official estimates, Tk1.16 lakh crore (46 %) will come from foreign sources, while Tk1.35 lakh crore (54 %) will be mobilised domestically.

Domestic borrowing includes an estimated Tk1.20 lakh crore from the banking system and Tk15,000 crore from savings instruments.

Inflation and Economic Stability Concerns:

Inflation remains a key concern in the lead-up to the budget. Recent data indicates point-to-point inflation at 9.42 % in May, significantly above the government’s target level.

Policy analysts suggest that achieving the 7.5% inflation target for FY27 will require coordinated monetary and fiscal tightening, alongside improved supply chain management and stronger market oversight of essential commodities.

Investment, Growth and Structural Reforms:

The budget places strong emphasis on boosting investment as the main driver of future growth. Experts note that private sector confidence, infrastructure development and regulatory predictability will be essential to achieving the projected GDP growth rate.

According to policy analysts, improving the ease of doing business, strengthening financial sector stability, and accelerating project implementation will play a critical role in sustaining economic momentum.

Special focus is expected on agriculture, export-oriented industries, manufacturing expansion, remittance inflows, and infrastructure connectivity.

Implementation Challenges and Outlook:

Despite ambitious targets, the success of the FY27 budget will depend heavily on effective implementation capacity, revenue performance, and macroeconomic stability.

Challenges such as sluggish private investment, limited revenue mobilisation, and global economic uncertainty continue to pose risks to fiscal projections.

However, policymakers remain optimistic that ongoing structural reforms and improved governance mechanisms will help unlock new investment opportunities and support medium-term growth ambitions.

As the Finance Minister prepares to place the budget before the national parliament tomorrow, attention now turns to how the government balances expansionary development goals with the need for fiscal prudence and inflation control in a challenging economic environment.