Spain are the favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, ahead of France, Argentina and Brazil, according to a ​Goldman Sachs model published on Friday that uses teams’ historical ‌performance and ranking data.

The model gives Spain a 26% chance of lifting the trophy at the tournament, which will be held in the United States, ​Mexico and Canada from 11 June to 19 July.

France were ​next on 19%, followed by reigning champions Argentina on 14%, ⁠Brazil on 8% and England on 5%, Goldman Sachs said ​in a research note.

The bank said its forecast is based mainly on ​teams’ Elo ratings, a performance-ranking system originally devised for chess and adapted for football, along with additional factors including attacking talent, recent momentum, mentality and geography.

“Spain ​is predicted to win because it has the highest Elo ​ranking, supported by scoring talent and good momentum into the competition,” Goldman Sachs said.

Argentina’s ‌chances ⁠were reduced by what the bank called a “winner’s slump” effect, or the tendency of defending champions to underperform at the following World Cup.

France’s odds were hurt by the likelihood of facing top-ranked Spain ​in the semi-finals, ​while England was ⁠marked down because of what Goldman described as a history of tournament underperformance, geographical headwinds and a ​slightly unfavorable draw.

Goldman said its projections were broadly ​in line ⁠with bookmakers’ odds, though it assigned England a lower probability of winning than betting markets did.

The bank said its model simulates match outcomes ⁠using ​nearly 20,000 mandatory international matches since 1978 ​and would be updated after each day of play during the tournament.